Proposal of predictive models in territorial planning and environmental impact evaluation

Abstract

The use of predictive models to generate future scenarios of land use changes can be very useful for territorial planning or in the environmental impact assessment. These models represent an important opportunity to anticipate and to mitigate the unsustainable urban growth process of some cities in Latin America. The most important evidences or impact of the urban growth have been the magnitude and intensity of the environmental and social effects. The loss of agricultural soil and the alteration of the surface run-off, are examples of the new forms and patterns of urbanization. On the other hand, the presence of private condominiums in the urban fringe, illustrate an accentuation in the socio-spatial segregation. From the development of a land use change model in Chillan city (mid size city), the main issues of the urban growth process are discussed, specially the implications of this model on the urban planning and environmental impact assessment.