Dynamic modulation of the arrivals of North American tourists to Mexico

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to identify the economic factors that determine the arrivals of North American tourists to Mexico from a multi-ecuational and dynamic perspective. In particular, long-term relationships and impacts of disposable income, trade value between the two countries and relative prices in the arrival of tourists to Mexico are established. The use of a vector autoregression model (VAR) is proposed, the model allows the identification of causal relationships and the forecasting of the quarterly demand of tourists to Mexico for the period 1996-2011. The proposed VAR model accuracy was contrasted against Naïve and SARIMA models.